The silver lining of a cooling property market for home owners

While rising prices were the talk of the town not so long ago, the tide has started to turn, with property values beginning to soften – but it’s not all bad news for home owners.

While we’re far from a market collapse, it’s only natural for home owners to be concerned that their valuable asset could be worth slightly less than it was a few months ago.

In fact, national home prices are now 1.8% lower than they were in March, led by falling values in Sydney and Melbourne.

However, there may be an unexpected upside to cooling property prices.

And that’s the possibility that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may think twice about hiking rates again in the near future.

Here’s what’s happening.

The RBA is watching inflation

The RBA has made no secret of the fact it is aiming for inflation between 2-3%.

The trouble is, we are still a long way from that sweet spot, with inflation currently at 3.8%.

And here’s the thing: “housing” makes up one of the largest single factors contributing to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures inflation.

Now, when it comes to CPI, “housing” doesn’t refer to the sale price or value of existing properties – but those sale prices do have a flow-on effect.

For starters, it’s believed that lower house prices can make home owners feel less financially stable, and in turn, they tend to tighten their belts. And it can have the opposite effect when property prices are running hot.

Additionally, when the property market is doing well, and more homes are being bought, more appliances and furniture are also being purchased – not to mention renovations, extensions and the hiring of tradespeople.

So it makes sense that a fall in property prices may help lower inflation, which could in turn reduce the odds of another rate hike.

This isn’t just a theory.

RBA assistant governor Christopher Kent recently said that softening property market conditions “heavily reduced” the need for further rate rises.

When will home loan rates go down?

We don’t have a crystal ball.

It’s always hard to say with certainty how rates will move in the future.

On one hand, in early August, RBA governor Michele Bullock cautioned that future rate hikes can’t be ruled out if inflation looks like remaining higher for longer.

On the flipside, most of the big banks now expect the next rate move to be down.

The catch?

Even if the banks’ forecasts prove accurate, they aren’t expecting to see the cash rate fall before 2027.

The RBA has also noted that it doesn’t expect inflation to reach its preferred 2-3% target before mid-2027.

For home owners navigating higher rates, that could mean a long wait for any rate relief.

However, you might not have to wait at all

It may be possible to make a rate cut of your own.

Competition among lenders: a strong case for refinancing

Competition in the mortgage market is seeing almost 50 lenders offer variable rates below 6%, Canstar reports.

An owner-occupier who took out a home loan five years ago and who has never renegotiated, is likely to be paying around 6.97%.

If that sounds like you, it’s probably time for a home loan review.

Switching to a lower rate loan could see you save on repayments today, without waiting for the RBA to act.

Call us for a quick home loan health check and to find out if you’re eligible for a more competitive rate.

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